Just a week ago, the world seemed a normal place. Yes, tensions were running high but what else was new? Suddenly, Russia actually made good on its implied threat to invade Ukraine, setting off a far-reaching impact that included non-conflict-related names like Gores Guggenheim (NASDAQ:GGPI). But in this case, GGPI stock appears to be a beneficiary.
As I write this on the final day of February, GGPI stock is putting up a solid performance, moving a little less than 2% from the prior session. While nothing to write home about in any other context, amid a catastrophic situation in eastern Europe where Ukrainian forces — and even civilians — are fighting for sovereignty and independence, the bullishness is remarkable.
What’s more, even Switzerland, which has long adopted a policy of neutrality, deviated sharply from its traditions and joined the European Union in sanctioning Russia.
But as astute investors might argue, though, optimism for Gores Guggenheim wasn’t entirely unexpected. Aside from GGPI stock, other electric car companies such as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) are presently putting up very robust figures.
Clearly, a key lesson with Russia’s invasion is geopolitical dependency. European nations, particularly Germany, had become too dependent on Russia. Anyone with a hint of international awareness could see the long-term risks associated with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would have sent natural gas from Russia directly to Germany.
Still, if the conflict presented a silver lining, it’s that nations across the world are going to take a very serious look at shifting to EVs. But is that actually a positive development?
Geopolitics Don’t Present an Easy Picture for GGPI Stock
On paper, the grand realization that fossil fuels present much greater costs than the price of the underlying commodities is the best thing that could have happened to GGPI stock. True, it’s not an exclusive benefit. Nevertheless, anything to drive momentum away from combustion vehicles toward the electric variety is on balance positive for Guggenheim, which will take EV-maker Polestar public.
I’m not going to begrudge anyone buying GGPI stock on the latest news. Certainly, the global paradigm has changed. Instead of diplomacy, Russian President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated that countries with sizable military firepower can just use violence to get what they want. Therefore, the intensity for going electric is about as sharp as it’s ever going to be.
However, even if nations make a full-scale pivot to EVs, that might not address the geopolitical vulnerability angle. Sure, EVs don’t have to go to the gasoline station anymore. But what about the batteries that go into EVs? You’re talking about requiring loads of “critical mineral commodities, particularly cobalt, graphite, lithium, and manganese.”
And that’s where the Faustian bargain comes into the picture. For instance, China dominates graphite production, a problematic situation considering that the U.S. and the west don’t have great relations with the world’s second-biggest economy. As well, China and Russia have close relations — enough so that the latter will be depending on the former to help it overcome the latest round of sanctions.
If that wasn’t bad enough, China also is a sizable producer of other critical raw materials, such as lithium. Thus, the more we shift our transportation paradigm to EVs, the likelier it is that western powers will trade dependency on Russia for dependency on China.
Either way, it’s not a great situation.
Combustion Also Innovates
The other headwind that few discuss about GGPI stock or any EV-related investment is that internal combustion-powered cars also enjoy their own innovations. For sure, the scale of innovation is nowhere near what EVs generate, largely because combustion cars represent a very mature industry. Still, the innovation is there.
Today’s combustion SUVs pack fuel efficiency and solid performance through small, turbo-boosted four-cylinder engines. I would know. I have one and it works like a charm.
Thus, EVs would really have to justify their higher upfront cost for consumers to make the switch. Perhaps soaring gas prices could do the trick, though with people driving fewer miles than before, even this idea is a challenged one.
On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.